THE ASSOCIATED PRESS

Tim Pawlenty should know by Saturday night whether he still has a viable shot at the 2012 GOP presidential nomination. So should Newt Gingrich.

That's what the Ames Straw Poll does — it culls some candidates once considered formidable. And it elevates the best of the backbenchers as legitimate challengers.

The straw poll, in and of itself, is probably a meaningless event, said Drake University political scientist Dennis Goldford.

But it "has tremendous political impact because if people do poorly, they tend to drop off because. . . their money dries out."

The results are unscientific and non-binding, but as Goldford said: "Observers and donors take this, rightly or wrongly. . . as a barometer of the relative strengths and weaknesses of particular campaigns."

The straw poll takes place Saturday at Hilton Coliseum on the campus of Iowa State University. Thousands of GOP faithful from across the state will be bused in to back their favorite presidential contender.

The result will be a narrowed field of GOP contenders.

"It can give some people a boost and knock some people down a few notches," said University of Nebraska-Lincoln political science professor John Hibbing.

Tommy Thompson dropped from the race a day after finishing sixth in 2007. In 1999, Dan Quayle finished eighth and was gone in a month. Elizabeth Dole finished third that year and was out in October.

Of the current crop, Pawlenty has the most to lose, said Iowa State political scientist Steffen Schmidt. The reasons: He has spent a lot of time and money in Iowa and on the event itself. And he is from a neighboring state, Minnesota.

"If he comes in second or third, that will give him a boost," Schmidt said. "If he can't get in the top three, then there will be some doubt as to whether he has what it takes."

Goldford expects the straw poll to be a pitched battle between Pawlenty and U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann, also of Minnesota.

The event is a heady stew of Iowa Republicans, national reporters and pundits. There will be music, food and a carnival-like atmosphere, but they do this for more than a good time.

The candidates try to get as many supporters as possible to the event. The labor-intensive exercise lets them test their ability to turn out supporters ahead of next winter's caucuses.

The Iowa Republican Party milks the campaigns for all they're worth, Goldford said, using the event as a fundraiser by auctioning off space around the coliseum.

U.S. Rep. Ron Paul of Texas has perhaps the most enviable piece of real estate, right outside the main entrance. He paid $31,000.

Some observers question the importance of the straw poll, as some Republicans — like frontrunner Mitt Romney — make a token effort.

Others, including Gov. Rick Perry of Texas and possible candidate Sarah Palin, have skipped it. Perry will formally announce his candidacy Saturday in South Carolina. Palin to date has not said whether she plans to run.

"You can't lose if you never play," Goldford said.

But ask Pottawattamie County GOP head Jeff Jorgensen, and he'll defend the straw poll.

"I think it's very relevant. I'm sorry that not all the candidates, or the potential candidates, are involved this year. But those who are involved are going to reap some rewards from it."

The poll favors the contenders with the most passionate and intense followers. Hibbing, of UNL, points out that the poll itself has done a poor job of predicting the eventual GOP nominee.

Only once, in 1999, did the straw poll pick the next president. That year the winner was George W. Bush. Only one other time, in 1995, did it predict the Republican nominee — Bob Dole, who tied with Phil Gramm.

Far from the retail politics of Iowa, debacles like this year's debt ceiling debate have sapped national politics of much of its charm, Schmidt said.

The straw poll is the antithesis of that.

"Sometimes politics can get too grim and nasty. But if you have a fun event, that's a good thing . it helps to make politics a bit more approachable."

This report includes material from the Associated Press.

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