Overall
July: 55.7. Aug.: 49.3.
Loan volume
July: 66.4. Aug.: 62.1.
Checking deposits
July: 52.8. Aug.: 55.4.
CDs
July: 43.7. Aug.: 40.2.
Ag land prices
July: 59.4. Aug.: 61.9.
Ag equipment sales
July: 53.7. Aug.: 56.9.
Home sales
July: 51.4. Aug.: 49.3.
Hiring
July: 49.3. Aug.: 49.3.
Retail
July: 47.9. Aug.: 47.8.
6-month forecast
July: 55.0. Aug.: 44.0.
An index of 50 is neutral. Higher numbers show expansion, lower numbers show decline. The forecast predicts economic activity in six months.
Rural Midwestern bankers in a survey said the economy turned down in August, the first indication of economic decline since October, and they expect continued decline over the next six months, a reversal of their earlier optimistic outlook.
The Rural Mainstreet Index, based on the survey of 205 bankers, was 49.3 on a scale of zero to 100, down from 55.7 in July. An index below 50 indicates decline. The survey's Confidence Index, based on the bankers' outlook six months from now, was 44, down from 55 in July and the first time below 50 since August 2010.
The survey is conducted by Creighton University economist Ernie Goss, who originated it with Greeley, Neb., banker Bill McQuillan. The bankers are from non-metro areas in Colorado, Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota and Wyoming.
Goss said the overall index had decreased in June and July as well, indicating that the rural economy is "clearly slowing down." More than one-third of the bankers in the survey said they expect a recession by the end of this year, with many of them citing recent weak economic reports and the downgrade of U.S. government debt.
The survey indicated continued strong loan demand, farmland values and farm equipment sales but slowdowns in home sales, hiring and retail business.
Iowa's index was 50.8, down from 58.7 in July. Nebraska's index was 52.1, down from 56.8 in July.
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